Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 10.314298 11.833486 13.467678 15.352494 17.462462 19.747667 22.405850
2025-11-16 8.018775 10.065799 12.438444 15.376196 18.899180 22.970566 28.012959
2025-11-23 6.737260 8.970092 11.686311 15.204867 19.610001 24.908260 31.724395
2025-11-30 5.872771 8.244949 11.258070 15.319878 20.599467 27.171534 35.904664
2025-12-07 5.338100 7.843048 11.144028 15.745723 21.916870 29.819651 40.602789
2025-12-14 4.680523 7.189100 10.614912 15.546975 22.360591 31.322416 43.857144
2025-12-21 3.988092 6.401121 9.814244 14.884845 22.093798 31.821471 45.751587
2025-12-28 3.715029 6.188284 9.791124 15.285116 23.282930 34.303421 50.389771
2026-01-04 3.441568 5.942311 9.689851 15.548667 24.270838 36.528676 54.744547
2026-01-11 3.107814 5.565846 9.356575 15.433178 24.684122 37.941641 57.994215
2026-01-18 2.807013 5.210206 9.021264 15.279974 25.014638 39.227611 61.088384
2026-01-25 2.574398 4.943270 8.800096 15.278991 25.559074 40.829063 64.680303
2026-02-01 2.382493 4.732059 8.658600 15.403282 26.315906 42.799324 68.932984
2026-02-08 2.175766 4.474021 8.418523 15.348918 26.784567 44.350415 72.617813
2026-02-15 1.976995 4.208441 8.140862 15.205587 27.089349 45.644345 75.937413
2026-02-22 1.838672 4.041303 8.018508 15.310578 27.793073 47.573016 80.288058
2026-03-01 1.761631 3.984170 8.084949 15.739882 29.046220 50.405734 86.135130
2026-03-08 1.602147 3.746868 7.805041 15.539891 29.225275 51.521383 89.303049
2026-03-15 1.398977 3.397828 7.288532 14.878475 28.573578 51.253341 90.234959
2026-03-22 1.345276 3.357250 7.353368 15.278433 29.777480 54.065821 96.229077
2026-03-29 1.279247 3.283112 7.346546 15.541943 30.748167 56.519242 101.707834
2026-04-05 1.177171 3.118146 7.146849 15.426477 31.031329 57.820868 105.318627
2026-04-12 1.080275 2.954177 6.935694 15.273338 31.233553 58.984219 108.725904